📈 How Leverage Amplifies Gains and Losses

How Leverage Amplifies Gains

The Upside Scenario:

When asset values rise, leverage magnifies your returns because gains apply to the entire asset (including borrowed portion) but benefit only your equity.

Example: Property Investment Comparison

Investor A - No Leverage (100% cash):

• Own capital: $500,000
• Buys 1 property: $500,000
• Property rises 20% to $600,000
• Gain: $100,000
• Return: 20%

Investor B - 80% Leverage:

• Own capital: $500,000
• Borrows: $2,000,000 (mortgage)
• Buys 5 properties: $2,500,000 total
• Properties rise 20% to $3,000,000
• Gain: $500,000
• Still owes: $2,000,000
• Equity now: $1,000,000 (was $500,000)
• Return: 100% (doubled money!)

Leverage Effect: Same 20% market gain, but Investor B (using leverage) achieved 100% return vs Investor A's 20%. This is leverage's power - borrowed money multiplied the outcome.

Why Leverage Works in Rising Markets:

• Borrow large sums at relatively low interest (3-7%)
• Asset appreciates faster than interest cost
• Rental income may cover interest payments
• Gains on borrowed portion accrue to you
• Can control much larger assets with same capital

How Leverage Amplifies Losses

The Downside Scenario:

When asset values fall, leverage magnifies your losses because losses apply to the entire asset but damage only your equity. You still owe the full loan amount.

Same Example - Market Falls:

Investor A - No Leverage:

• Property: $500,000
• Falls 20% to $400,000
• Loss: $100,000
• Loss: 20% (still have $400k asset)

Investor B - 80% Leverage:

• Properties: $2,500,000
• Fall 20% to $2,000,000
• Loss: $500,000
• Still owe: $2,000,000
• Equity now: $0 (was $500,000)
• Loss: 100% (wiped out completely!)

Leverage Risk: Same 20% market fall, but Investor B lost everything while Investor A still has $400k. This is leverage's danger - borrowed money multiplies losses too.

Worse Case - Negative Equity:

If market falls more than your equity percentage, you owe more than asset is worth:

• Property bought: $500,000 (80% LVR, $100k equity)
• Falls 30% to $350,000
• Loan: Still $400,000
• Negative equity: -$50,000 (owe $50k more than asset worth)
• If forced to sell, must pay bank $50k plus selling costs
• Lost original $100k deposit PLUS extra $50k
• Total loss: $150k on $100k investment = -150%

Margin Calls (Forced Sales):

What happens when equity drops too low:

• Bank requires minimum equity (usually 20-25%)
• If asset falls and equity drops below threshold, bank issues margin call
• Must add more capital OR sell asset
• Usually forced to sell at worst time (falling market)
• Locks in losses at market bottom

Interest Rate Risk:

Rising rates hurt leveraged investors:

• Borrowed $400,000 at 3% = $12,000/year interest
• Rates rise to 7% = $28,000/year interest
• Extra $16,000/year cost
• If rental income doesn't cover, must pay from pocket
• High leverage + high rates = cashflow crisis

🏠 Property and Share Market Leverage

Property Leverage Example

Why NZ Investors Love Property Leverage:

• Banks readily lend 80% (sometimes 90%)
• Long-term property growth (historically 6-8% annually)
• Rental income helps service debt
• Tangible asset (house exists physically)
• Tax advantages (interest deductibility - though changing)

Detailed Property Leverage Scenario:

Investment property purchase:

• Property price: $600,000
• Deposit (20%): $120,000
• Mortgage (80%): $480,000
• Interest rate: 5%
• Annual interest: $24,000

Rental income:

• Rent: $600/week = $31,200/year
• Minus expenses: $6,000 (rates, insurance, maintenance)
• Net rental: $25,200
• Covers interest + small surplus

Scenario 1 - Good times (property rises 10%):

• Year 1: Property $600k → $660k
• Equity: $120k → $180k
• Return on deposit: 50%
• Plus rental surplus: ~$1,200
• Total return: ~51% first year

Scenario 2 - Correction (property falls 15%):

• Property: $600k → $510k
• Loan: Still $480k
• Equity: $120k → $30k
• Loss: $90k on $120k deposit
• Return: -75%
• If bank requires 20% equity, margin call issued
• Must add $72k cash or sell (forced sale in falling market)

Share Market Margin Risk

How Share Margin Works:

• Borrow money using shares as collateral
• Typical LVR: 50-70% (more conservative than property)
• Interest rates: Higher than mortgages (7-10%)
• Can borrow to buy more shares = compound leverage

Why Share Margin Is Riskier:

Compared to property:

• Volatility: Shares swing 20-30% annually vs property 5-10%
• Speed: Share prices change daily vs property slowly
• Margin calls: Can happen overnight with share crash
• No income: Dividends small vs rental income
• Liquidity: Easy to sell (forced sales common)

Share Margin Example:

Starting position:

• Own capital: $50,000
• Borrow: $50,000 (50% margin)
• Buy shares: $100,000

Market rises 20%:

• Shares now: $120,000
• Owe: $50,000
• Equity: $70,000 (was $50,000)
• Return: 40% (doubled the market gain)

Market falls 30% (bear market):

• Shares now: $70,000
• Owe: $50,000
• Equity: $20,000 (was $50,000)
• Loss: 60% (doubled the market loss)
• LVR now: 71% (above threshold)
• Margin call issued - must add $15k or sell

The Margin Call Death Spiral:

1. Market falls 30% (crash)
2. Your portfolio drops below required equity
3. Broker issues margin call
4. You can't add more capital (broke or illiquid)
5. Forced to sell shares at market bottom
6. Selling creates more selling pressure (vicious cycle)
7. Lock in maximum losses at worst possible time
8. Lose original capital + still owe money if negative equity

When Leverage Is Dangerous

Warning Signs:

1. High leverage ratio (>70% LVR):

• Small asset decline wipes out equity
• No buffer for market corrections
• Vulnerable to margin calls

2. Rising interest rates:

• Debt service costs increase
• Cashflow becomes negative
• Forced to sell if can't cover payments

3. Income-dependent servicing:

• Rely on job income to pay mortgage
• Job loss = immediate crisis
• No buffer or alternative income

4. Overexposure (multiple leveraged positions):

• 3-5 investment properties all 80% leveraged
• Single market correction threatens entire portfolio
• Can't sell one without triggering cascade

5. Volatile assets:

• Leveraging shares or cryptocurrencies
• High volatility + high leverage = disaster potential
• Can lose everything overnight

👤 NZ Scenario and Leverage Risk Checklist

NZ Scenario: David, Overexposed Property Investor

Background (2020):

• David: 42, IT manager in Auckland
• Salary: $120,000
• Believer in property investment
• Read books: "Rich Dad Poor Dad", property investment guides
• Strategy: Maximum leverage for maximum returns

David's Portfolio (2020):

Owner-occupied home:

• Value: $900,000
• Mortgage: $450,000 at 3%
• Equity: $450,000

Investment Property 1:

• Value: $650,000
• Mortgage: $520,000 (80% LVR) at 3.5%
• Rent: $600/week

Investment Property 2:

• Value: $580,000
• Mortgage: $464,000 (80% LVR) at 3.5%
• Rent: $550/week

Investment Property 3 (just purchased):

• Value: $700,000
• Mortgage: $560,000 (80% LVR) at 3.5%
• Rent: $650/week

Total portfolio:

• Total property value: $2,830,000
• Total debt: $1,994,000
• Total equity: $836,000
• Overall LVR: 70%

David's Cashflow (2020 - Low Rates):

Income:

• Salary after tax: $84,000/year ($7,000/month)
• Rental income: $1,800/week = $93,600/year

Expenses:

• Home mortgage: $450k at 3% = $1,125/month
• Investment mortgages: $1,544k at 3.5% = $4,502/month
• Rates/insurance/maintenance: $2,000/month
• Personal living: $3,000/month
• Total: $10,627/month

Total income: $14,800/month

Surplus: $4,173/month (comfortable!)

The Crisis (2022-2024):

Interest rates rise dramatically:

• RBNZ raises rates to combat inflation
• Mortgages reset from 3-3.5% to 6.5-7%

David's new situation:

• Home mortgage: $450k at 6.5% = $2,438/month (+$1,313)
• Investment mortgages: $1,544k at 7% = $9,007/month (+$4,505)
• Extra costs: $5,818/month

New cashflow:

• Income: Still $14,800/month (rental + salary)
• Expenses: Now $16,445/month
• Deficit: -$1,645/month

Making It Worse:

Property market correction:

• Auckland prices fall 15% (2022-2023)
• David's portfolio: $2,830k → $2,406k
• Debt: Still $1,994k
• Equity: $836k → $412k (-51%)
• New LVR: 83% (was 70%)

Can't sell without massive loss:

• If sells Property 3 at $595k (was $700k)
• Owes $560k + selling costs $30k = $590k
• Proceeds: $595k - $590k = $5k left
• Lost $105k original equity for $5k back

David's Options (All Bad):

Option 1: Hold and pay deficit

• -$1,645/month from savings
• ~$20k/year
• Burns through emergency fund quickly
• Can't sustain long-term

Option 2: Sell property at loss

• Lock in 15% capital loss
• Plus selling costs
• Essentially walks away with nothing from that property

Option 3: Default on loans

• Bank forecloses
• Destroys credit rating
• May still owe money if negative equity

What David Did:

• Sold Investment Property 3 at $595k (painful loss)
• Reduced cashflow deficit to -$800/month
• Supplementing from salary (struggle but manageable)
• Holding other properties hoping for recovery
• Living frugally, no discretionary spending
• Constant stress about job security (if loses job, loses everything)

David's Lessons:

• Leverage works both ways - amplified gains AND losses
• 80% LVR across multiple properties = high risk
• Didn't stress test for 7% interest rates
• Assumed property only goes up (it doesn't)
• Overextended - should have stopped at 2 properties
• Need larger equity buffer (50-60% LVR safer)
• "Maximum leverage = maximum returns" also means maximum risk

Leverage Risk Checklist

Before Taking on Leverage:

• ☐ Calculate total debt to equity ratio: ____%
• ☐ Is LVR under 70%? (safer) Yes / No
• ☐ Stress test at higher rates:
• Current rate: ____%
• Test at +3%: ____%
• Can I afford payments? Yes / No
• ☐ Calculate debt service coverage:
• Income ÷ Debt Payments = ____ (want >1.3x)
• ☐ Emergency fund: _____ months of payments
• ☐ Alternative income sources beyond job: Yes / No

Ongoing Monitoring:

• ☐ Review LVR quarterly
• ☐ Track property values (conservative estimates)
• ☐ Monitor interest rate environment
• ☐ Ensure positive cashflow (or affordable deficit)
• ☐ Maintain liquid reserves for rate rises

Warning Signs:

• ☐ LVR > 75% (danger zone)
• ☐ Negative cashflow without buffer
• ☐ Relying on job income to cover deficits
• ☐ Interest rates rising
• ☐ Property market weakening
• ☐ Can't sleep due to debt stress

Safe Leverage Practices:

• ☐ Keep total LVR under 60-70%
• ☐ Maintain 6-12 month emergency fund
• ☐ Diversify income sources
• ☐ Stress test at rates 3-4% higher than current
• ☐ Start conservative, increase leverage slowly
• ☐ Don't leverage on volatile assets (shares, crypto)
• ☐ Ensure cashflow positive at current rates

Final insight: Leverage uses borrowed money to magnify investment returns on own capital - double-edged sword. How amplifies gains: $500k property with $100k deposit (80% LVR), property rises 10% to $550k, equity grows $100k to $150k = 50% return vs 10% without leverage. How amplifies losses: same property falls 10% to $450k, equity drops to $50k = 50% loss, can lose more than invested if falls further. Property leverage common in NZ (80% LVR), feels safe but vulnerable to rate rises and corrections. Share margin riskier due to volatility and daily margin calls. When dangerous: high rates eat profits, falling markets trigger margin calls, overexposure across properties, can't service from income, forced sales at worst time. David scenario: bought 3 investment properties 80% LVR during 3% rates, rates rose to 7%, cashflow went from +$4,173 to -$1,645 monthly, properties fell 15%, forced to sell at loss. Leverage risk checklist: stress test at higher rates, maintain equity buffer under 70% LVR, ensure debt service coverage >1.3x, build emergency fund, avoid overexposure. Conservative leverage accelerates wealth, aggressive leverage can destroy it.