💼 Wage Growth and Investment Returns

Wage Growth vs Inflation

The Reality Check:

Many workers receive annual pay rises of 2-3%. This feels like progress - more money each year. But if inflation is also 2-3%, you're just keeping pace, not getting ahead.

Real Wage Growth Scenarios:

Scenario 1: Winning (real wage growth)

• Wage increase: 5% per year
• Inflation: 2% per year
• Real wage growth: ~3% per year
• Purchasing power increasing - truly better off

Scenario 2: Treading water (no real growth)

• Wage increase: 3% per year
• Inflation: 3% per year
• Real wage growth: 0%
• Maintaining purchasing power - not progressing

Scenario 3: Losing (real wage decline)

• Wage increase: 2% per year
• Inflation: 4% per year
• Real wage decline: -2% per year
• Purchasing power decreasing - actually worse off despite raise

NZ Example: Minimum Wage

Nominal increases look good:

• 2018: $16.50/hour
• 2023: $22.70/hour
• Nominal increase: 37.6%

But accounting for inflation:

• Cumulative inflation 2018-2023: ~15%
• Real increase: ~20% (still positive but less impressive than 37.6%)

Investment Returns After Inflation

Nominal vs Real Returns:

What matters: Real return = Nominal return - Inflation

Investment Examples:

Shares - appears strong:

• Nominal return: 9% per year
• Inflation: 3% per year
• Real return: 6% per year
• Good real wealth building

Savings account - disappointing:

• Nominal return: 2% per year
• Inflation: 3% per year
• Real return: -1% per year
• Losing purchasing power despite positive interest

Term deposit - barely ahead:

• Nominal return: 4% per year
• Inflation: 3% per year
• Real return: 1% per year
• Wealth growing very slowly

Long-Term Impact:

$100,000 invested for 20 years:

Nominal perspective (7% return):

• Future value: $387,000
• Looks like nearly 4x wealth

Real perspective (7% return, 3% inflation):

• Real return: 4% per year
• Future value in today's dollars: $219,000
• Actually ~2.2x wealth in purchasing power terms

Still good growth, but less dramatic than nominal numbers suggest.

The "Safe" Savings Trap:

Problem: Keeping money in low-interest savings

• Feels safe (balance never goes down)
• But inflation invisibly erodes purchasing power
• $50k savings at 1% interest with 3% inflation loses $1,000 real value per year
• Over 10 years, purchasing power drops to ~$38k equivalent
• "Safe" storage is actually guaranteed real loss

Why This Matters for Investing:

• Must aim for returns that beat inflation
• Minimum target: inflation + 2-3%
• Otherwise wealth eroding even though balance grows
• Real returns determine actual wealth building

🏠 Property Gains and NZ Scenario

Property Gains in Real Terms

Why Property Gains Look Impressive:

Property prices often rise dramatically in nominal terms, creating illusion of massive wealth creation. But must account for inflation to see real gains.

Example: Auckland Property

Nominal perspective:

• Bought 2000: $250,000
• Sold 2025: $1,200,000
• Nominal gain: $950,000 (380%!)
• Looks like incredible investment

Real perspective (accounting for inflation):

• Cumulative inflation 2000-2025: ~75%
• $250k in 2000 = $437k in 2025 dollars (just keeping pace)
• Actual value: $1,200,000
• Real gain: $763,000 above inflation
• Real return: 175%

Still excellent return, but 175% real vs 380% nominal - quite different stories.

Property vs Other Investments (Real Terms):

$100,000 invested in 2000, value in 2025:

Real terms show actual wealth building. Savings and cash lost purchasing power despite growing or maintaining nominal value.

NZ Scenario: Sarah's Salary Journey

Background:

• Sarah: Teacher in Wellington
• 2020: Starting salary $60,000
• Gets annual increases based on experience steps

Sarah's Nominal Salary Growth:

• 2020: $60,000
• 2021: $62,400 (+4%)
• 2022: $64,500 (+3.4%)
• 2023: $66,300 (+2.8%)
• 2024: $67,800 (+2.3%)
• 2025: $69,000 (+1.8%)
• Total nominal increase: $9,000 (15%)

Sarah's Perception:

• Feels like good progress
• 15% pay rise over 5 years
• Annual increases every year
• Bank balance higher each month

But Actual Inflation (NZ 2020-2025):

• 2020-2021: 1.4%
• 2021-2022: 6.7% (COVID supply issues)
• 2022-2023: 5.7%
• 2023-2024: 4.0%
• 2024-2025: 2.5% (returning to normal)
• Cumulative inflation: 21.7%

Sarah's Real Salary:

Converting 2025 salary to 2020 purchasing power:

• 2025 salary: $69,000
• Cumulative inflation: 21.7%
• 2025 salary in 2020 dollars: $69,000 ÷ 1.217 = $56,700
• Real salary decline: -5.5%

The Harsh Reality:

• Nominal salary up 15%
• But inflation up 21.7%
• Sarah can actually buy LESS in 2025 than 2020
• $69k today purchases what $56.7k did in 2020
• Went backwards despite raises every year

What This Feels Like:

• Groceries cost more
• Rent increased significantly
• Petrol more expensive
• Utilities higher
• Despite bigger paycheques, money doesn't stretch as far
• Confusion: "I got raises, why do I feel poorer?"

Sarah's Learning:

• Must compare wage growth to inflation
• Nominal gains mean nothing if inflation higher
• Advocating for cost-of-living adjustments in salary negotiations
• Understanding why lifestyle feels tighter despite "raises"
• Thinking in real purchasing power, not nominal dollars

✅ Inflation Awareness Checklist

Developing Inflation-Adjusted Thinking:

For Salary and Wages:

• ☐ Know current annual inflation rate: ____%
• ☐ Compare pay rise to inflation:
• My pay increase: ____%
• Current inflation: ____%
• Real wage change: ____%
• ☐ Am I gaining (raise > inflation)? Yes / No
• ☐ Negotiate raises that beat inflation, not just match it
• ☐ Don't accept "standard" 2% raise if inflation is 4%

For Investments:

• ☐ Calculate real return for each investment:
• Shares: ____% nominal - ____% inflation = ____% real
• Property: ____% nominal - ____% inflation = ____% real
• Savings: ____% nominal - ____% inflation = ____% real
• ☐ Target investments with positive real returns
• ☐ Minimum acceptable: Inflation + 2%
• ☐ Avoid "safe" options that guarantee real loss

For Property:

• ☐ When evaluating property gains, calculate real appreciation:
• Purchase price: $______
• Current/sale price: $______
• Years held: ______
• Cumulative inflation over period: ____%
• Purchase price in today's dollars: $______
• Real gain: $______ (____%)
• ☐ Don't assume all property appreciation is "real" wealth

For Long-Term Planning:

• ☐ Retirement planning: Calculate needs in real terms
• Need $60k/year today
• In 30 years at 2.5% inflation: $125k/year needed
• ☐ Savings goals: Adjust for inflation
• House deposit: $100k today = $161k in 20 years (at 2.5%)
• ☐ Investment targets: Express in real return terms

Red Flags (Nominal Thinking):

• ☐ Celebrating pay rise without checking inflation
• ☐ Bragging about investment returns in nominal terms only
• ☐ Assuming savings balance growth = wealth growth
• ☐ Comparing dollar amounts across years without adjustment
• ☐ Planning retirement needs using today's expenses
• ☐ Accepting "interest earned" as success without inflation check

Formulas to Remember:

Real value from nominal:

Real return:

Future cost accounting for inflation:

Quick Reference: NZ Inflation

• Target range: 1-3% annually (RBNZ)
• Long-term average: ~2-2.5%
• Recent higher: 4-6% (pandemic impacts)
• Check current: Stats NZ website (quarterly updates)

Final insight: Inflation-adjusted thinking distinguishes nominal (raw dollars) from real (purchasing power) values. Nominal misleading across time - $50k in 2020 ≠ $50k in 2025 due to inflation. Real values account for this - show actual wealth changes. Wage growth vs inflation: 3% raise with 3% inflation = zero real growth, just keeping pace. Must beat inflation to truly get ahead. Investment returns after inflation: 7% return minus 3% inflation = 4% real return (what matters for wealth building). Savings accounts losing purchasing power if interest < inflation. Property gains in real terms: Auckland house $250k to $1.2M (380% nominal) but after inflation more like 175% real gain - still good but less dramatic. Sarah scenario: salary $60k to $69k (15% nominal) but inflation 21.7% means real salary $56.7k equivalent - actually worse off despite raises. Feels like "I got raises, why am I poorer?" Inflation awareness checklist: compare wages to inflation, calculate real investment returns, adjust property gains for inflation, plan retirement in real terms. Always think purchasing power not dollars - nominal gains can be illusion if inflation higher.